SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Outlook Image

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0200 PM CST Mon Jan 18 2021

Valid 182000Z - 191200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not expected across the U.S. mainland the rest of
today or tonight.

...Eastern Texas...

Modified continental polar air with 50s to around 60 F dewpoints
will advect through eastern TX ahead of a southward-advancing cold
front, resulting in a shallow unstable layer above the surface.
Scattered elevated showers are likely within the frontal zone as
well as the warm sector late tonight. However, it appears the
convective layer will not deepen sufficiently to support a 10% or
greater coverage of thunderstorms prior to 12Z.

..Dial.. 01/18/2021

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1028 AM CST Mon Jan 18 2021/

...Central/east Texas...
Scattered showers are expected to develop/increase late tonight
through the early morning hours of Tuesday near/behind the surface
reflection of a southeastward-advancing cold front. Minimal elevated
buoyancy through a sufficient depth may allow for charge separation
and some lightning flashes in the pre-dawn hours of Tuesday.

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