Day 4-8 Outlook

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0350 AM CST Mon Jan 18 2021

Valid 211200Z - 261200Z

...DISCUSSION...
...Thursday/Day 4 and Friday/Day 5...
The medium-range models move a shortwave trough across the Desert
Southwest on Thursday as zonal mid-level flow remains from the
southern Plains to the Eastern Seaboard. Thunderstorm development
will be possible on Thursday across parts of the western and central
Gulf Coast region along the northern edge of a moist airmass.
Instability is expected to be too weak for severe thunderstorm
development. The shortwave trough is forecast to move into the Gulf
Coast States on Friday. Thunderstorms will again be possible in the 
northern part of the moist airmass which should be located from the
Texas Coastal Plain eastward to the Florida Panhandle. Instability
is again forecast to be weak suggesting severe thunderstorm
potential will be minimal.

...Saturday/Day 6 to Monday/Day 8...
On Saturday, the medium-range models move an upper-level ridge
across the Mississippi Valley as southwest mid-level flow becomes
established from the Four Corners region eastward into the Great
Plains. The models are in reasonable agreement on Sunday moving an
upper-level trough across the Intermountain West. Moisture return is
forecast to take place ahead of this system in parts of the southern
Plains. Thunderstorm development will be possible during the day on
Sunday from Texas northward into Oklahoma along an axis of
instability. Although a severe threat can not be ruled out,
predictability remains low for Sunday. On Monday, the upper-level
trough is forecast to move into the Great Plains as a cold front
advances into the Arklatex. Thunderstorm development will be
possible along and ahead of the front across the lower to mid
Mississippi Valley during the day on Monday. If the forecasts
verify, a severe threat would be possible in areas that can heat up
sufficiently ahead of the front. However, predictability is low this
far out in the forecast period.

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