SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Outlook Image

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0644 PM CST Mon Jan 18 2021

Valid 190100Z - 191200Z


Thunderstorms appear unlikely across the contiguous United States
through tonight.

...Central/East Texas...
A gradual increase in low-level moisture will continue tonight
across parts of central/east TX ahead of southeastward-moving cold
front. Modest low-level warm advection occurring over this front
should encourage scattered showers to develop across this region,
mainly after 06Z. Current expectations are for this convection to
remain shallow owing to rather poor mid-level lapse rates, with
limited instability reaching into the 0 to -20 C layer. Although an
isolated lightning flash cannot be ruled out in this regime late
tonight into early Tuesday morning, overall thunderstorm
probabilities should remain below 10% through the end of the period.

..Gleason.. 01/19/2021

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