SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook

Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0231 AM CST Tue Jan 19 2021

Valid 211200Z - 221200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe weather is not expected across the U.S. on Thursday.

...Discussion...
Fast westerly/west-northwesterly flow aloft is expected to continue
across the U.S. on Thursday.  An upper low initially centered over
the northern Gulf of California vicinity is forecast to steadily
weaken/deamplify as it shifts eastward toward the southern Plains. 
Meanwhile, an area of troughing off the coast of western Canada is
progged to dig south-southeastward with time, affecting the Pacific
Northwest through the second half of the period.

At the surface, a weakening clipper-type system will move across the
Northeast and adjacent eastern Canada with time, as high pressure
builds into the north-central U.S. in its wake.  Very weak low
pressure is expected to move across the Southwest and into the
southern Plains, ahead of the dampening upper system.

Showers -- and possibly a few lightning flashes -- will spread
across the Southwest during the day, in tandem with the upper trough
and associated/weak surface system.  A few flashes may also occur
later over east Texas and the Arklatex.  Here, however, coverage of
any lightning appears as though it should remain below the 10%
threshold required for inclusion of a thunder area.

..Goss.. 01/19/2021

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