SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0629 AM CST Tue Jan 19 2021 Valid 191300Z - 201200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Eastern to central TX... Low-topped showers are ongoing within a narrow swath along the cool side of a cold front that will sink south across the eastern to southern portions of the state through tonight. Low-level warm theta-e advection will begin to wane this afternoon as shortwave ridging builds in the mid to upper levels. This will likely confine low-end thunder potential in east-central TX this morning. Otherwise, weak isentropic ascent along the cool side of the front may still support periodic showers farther southwest. But thermodynamic profiles appear rather marginal for charge separation and thunder probabilities may remain minimal. ...Far southern CA and southwest AZ... A closed upper low is in the process of developing south off Point Conception and will become established offshore west of Baja CA. An attendant cold pocket will promote steepened mid-level lapse rates while forcing for ascent strengthens near the western outskirts of the Channel Islands. Here, convection should develop towards midday into the afternoon with a risk for isolated thunder well west of the southern CA coast. Isolated thunderstorms may also occur in the modest mid-level moisture plume emanating north from the Gulf of CA into the far southern portion of the Lower CO River Valley. Buoyancy should be rather scant and the bulk of this convection will likely remain in the form of showers. ..Grams/Kerr.. 01/19/2021
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