SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Outlook Image

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0629 AM CST Tue Jan 19 2021

Valid 191300Z - 201200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight.

...Eastern to central TX...
Low-topped showers are ongoing within a narrow swath along the cool
side of a cold front that will sink south across the eastern to
southern portions of the state through tonight. Low-level warm
theta-e advection will begin to wane this afternoon as shortwave
ridging builds in the mid to upper levels. This will likely confine
low-end thunder potential in east-central TX this morning.
Otherwise, weak isentropic ascent along the cool side of the front
may still support periodic showers farther southwest. But
thermodynamic profiles appear rather marginal for charge separation
and thunder probabilities may remain minimal. 

...Far southern CA and southwest AZ...
A closed upper low is in the process of developing south off Point
Conception and will become established offshore west of Baja CA. An
attendant cold pocket will promote steepened mid-level lapse rates
while forcing for ascent strengthens near the western outskirts of
the Channel Islands. Here, convection should develop towards midday
into the afternoon with a risk for isolated thunder well west of the
southern CA coast. Isolated thunderstorms may also occur in the
modest mid-level moisture plume emanating north from the Gulf of CA
into the far southern portion of the Lower CO River Valley. Buoyancy
should be rather scant and the bulk of this convection will likely
remain in the form of showers.

..Grams/Kerr.. 01/19/2021

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