SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0147 PM CST Tue Jan 19 2021 Valid 192000Z - 201200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...20z Update... The ongoing forecast remains on track and no changes are needed with this update. See the previous discussion below for more forecast details. ..Leitman.. 01/19/2021 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1031 AM CST Tue Jan 19 2021/ ...Eastern/central Texas... Showers persist at midday along the cool side of a surface front, with a low but non-zero potential for lightning within a marginally supportive environment. Additional development should occur southwestward over time into other parts of south-central Texas, although thermodynamic profiles appear rather marginal for charge separation and thunder probabilities should remain minimal. ...Far southern California/southwest Arizona... A closed upper low will continue to transition south-southwestward toward off the Baja coast through tonight. Related steep mid-level lapse rates and forcing for ascent may support isolated thunderstorms, although most of this activity should tend to be focused offshore and/or across northwest Mexico.
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