SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Outlook Image

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0147 PM CST Tue Jan 19 2021

Valid 192000Z - 201200Z


Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight.

...20z Update...

The ongoing forecast remains on track and no changes are needed with
this update. See the previous discussion below for more forecast

..Leitman.. 01/19/2021

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1031 AM CST Tue Jan 19 2021/

...Eastern/central Texas...
Showers persist at midday along the cool side of a surface front,
with a low but non-zero potential for lightning within a marginally
supportive environment. Additional development should occur
southwestward over time into other parts of south-central Texas,
although thermodynamic profiles appear rather marginal for charge
separation and thunder probabilities should remain minimal. 

...Far southern California/southwest Arizona...
A closed upper low will continue to transition south-southwestward
toward off the Baja coast through tonight. Related steep mid-level
lapse rates and forcing for ascent may support isolated
thunderstorms, although most of this activity should tend to be
focused offshore and/or across northwest Mexico.

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