Day 4-8 Outlook

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0359 AM CST Tue Jan 19 2021

Valid 221200Z - 271200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Medium-range models appear to be in good agreement day 4 (Friday
1-22), with respect to evolution of the large-scale features, but
subtle differences aloft begin to emerge day 5, and then increase
day 6 and beyond.  

With that said, models generally agree that an upper system will
move slowly across the southwestern U.S. during the first half of
the period.  Corresponding downstream surface development is
expected to occur over the southern Plains beginning day 5
(Saturday), but particularly day 6 (Sunday), after which model
divergence becomes too substantial to make even general inferences
regarding pattern evolution.

With little convective potential evident Friday, an increase in
thunderstorm activity may occur later in the day Saturday over the
south-central U.S., and continuing into Sunday as an increase in
southerly low-level flow permits at least some theta-e advection
from the western Gulf of Mexico.  While some corresponding increase
in convective activity is expected, degree of any severe-weather
potential remains uncertain, and thus too low to introduce a risk
area at this time.  Beyond Sunday, decreasing predictability
precludes any reasonable assessment of convective potential.

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