Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CST Tue Jan 19 2021 Valid 221200Z - 271200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range models appear to be in good agreement day 4 (Friday 1-22), with respect to evolution of the large-scale features, but subtle differences aloft begin to emerge day 5, and then increase day 6 and beyond. With that said, models generally agree that an upper system will move slowly across the southwestern U.S. during the first half of the period. Corresponding downstream surface development is expected to occur over the southern Plains beginning day 5 (Saturday), but particularly day 6 (Sunday), after which model divergence becomes too substantial to make even general inferences regarding pattern evolution. With little convective potential evident Friday, an increase in thunderstorm activity may occur later in the day Saturday over the south-central U.S., and continuing into Sunday as an increase in southerly low-level flow permits at least some theta-e advection from the western Gulf of Mexico. While some corresponding increase in convective activity is expected, degree of any severe-weather potential remains uncertain, and thus too low to introduce a risk area at this time. Beyond Sunday, decreasing predictability precludes any reasonable assessment of convective potential.
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