SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 PM CST Tue Jan 19 2021 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms may occur today across parts of southern California and Arizona. Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A closed upper low off the coast of southern CA and the northern Baja Peninsula will gradually develop northeastward towards the lower CO River Valley through the period. Strong southwesterly deep-layer flow will transport modest low to mid-level moisture northward into southern CA and AZ today. Cooling mid-level temperatures and steepening lapse rates through the day with the approach of the upper low should also support the development of weak instability. Isolated thunderstorms may occur across this region, but the lack of stronger instability should preclude an organized severe threat. Elsewhere, surface high pressure over the southern Plains and Southeast will limit the northward extent of meaningful low-level moisture away from the Gulf Coast. Accordingly, thunderstorm potential across the central/eastern CONUS appears very low today. ..Gleason/Moore.. 01/20/2021
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