SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Outlook Image

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1130 PM CST Tue Jan 19 2021

Valid 201200Z - 211200Z


Isolated thunderstorms may occur today across parts of southern
California and Arizona. Severe thunderstorms are not expected.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
A closed upper low off the coast of southern CA and the northern
Baja Peninsula will gradually develop northeastward towards the
lower CO River Valley through the period. Strong southwesterly
deep-layer flow will transport modest low to mid-level moisture
northward into southern CA and AZ today. Cooling mid-level
temperatures and steepening lapse rates through the day with the
approach of the upper low should also support the development of
weak instability. Isolated thunderstorms may occur across this
region, but the lack of stronger instability should preclude an
organized severe threat.

Elsewhere, surface high pressure over the southern Plains and
Southeast will limit the northward extent of meaningful low-level
moisture away from the Gulf Coast. Accordingly, thunderstorm
potential across the central/eastern CONUS appears very low today.

..Gleason/Moore.. 01/20/2021

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