SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Outlook Image

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0140 PM CST Wed Jan 20 2021

Valid 202000Z - 211200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated non-severe thunderstorms are possible across the Lower
Colorado Valley and southern Arizona through tonight.

...20z Update...

The ongoing forecast remains on track, and no changes are necessary
with this update. For forecast details, please see the previous
discussion below.

..Leitman.. 01/20/2021

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1029 AM CST Wed Jan 20 2021/

...Southern Arizona/far southeast California...
A closed upper low west of the Baja Peninsula will become somewhat
more progressive as it evolves into an open wave through early
Thursday morning while approaching the northern Gulf of California.
Preceding it, a plume of sufficient low to mid-level moisture across
the peninsula and gulf will support periods of showers and embedded
thunderstorms mostly across the northwest portions of Mexico and
adjacent waters. Some of this activity will spread across the
international border, mainly later this afternoon through tonight
across southern Arizona. Severe thunderstorms are unlikely owing to
meager buoyancy and weak low-level winds.

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