SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Outlook Image

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1029 AM CST Thu Jan 21 2021

Valid 211630Z - 221200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Although severe thunderstorms are not expected, thunderstorms will
be possible today across parts of southern Arizona, and from eastern
Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley tonight.

...Southern Arizona...
In relation to the eastward-ejecting/de-amplifying shortwave trough
over northwest Mexico, a few thunderstorms will remain a possibility
mainly across far southern portions of Arizona through the
afternoon.

...East Texas into lower Mississippi Valley...
Additional moistening/lift in vicinity of a west/east-oriented
low-level baroclinic zone may become conducive for some
thunderstorms this evening into the overnight.

...Coastal areas of southern Oregon/northern California...
In association with a southward-digging shortwave trough, convection
should increase late tonight beneath the mid-level cold core. A few
lightning flashes could occur offshore, but the near-shore/coastal
thunderstorm potential should remain very low (less than 10
percent).

..Guyer.. 01/21/2021

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