SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0146 PM CST Thu Jan 21 2021

Valid 212000Z - 221200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Although severe thunderstorms are not expected, thunderstorms will
continue across parts of southern Arizona through early evening, and
from eastern Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley tonight.

...20z Update...

Only minor changes have been made to the 10% General Thunder line
across southern AZ. General thunder has been removed across
southwest AZ as the upper trough continues to eject eastward.
Isolated thunderstorms have been noted near the U.S./Mexico border
this afternoon, and this activity may continue for several more
hours. 

Otherwise, the remainder of the previous outlook remains unchanged,
with additional isolated thunderstorms possible from eastern TX into
the lower MS Valley tonight.

..Leitman.. 01/21/2021

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1029 AM CST Thu Jan 21 2021/

...Southern Arizona...
In relation to the eastward-ejecting/de-amplifying shortwave trough
over northwest Mexico, a few thunderstorms will remain a possibility
mainly across far southern portions of Arizona through the
afternoon.

...East Texas into lower Mississippi Valley...
Additional moistening/lift in vicinity of a west/east-oriented
low-level baroclinic zone may become conducive for some
thunderstorms this evening into the overnight.

...Coastal areas of southern Oregon/northern California...
In association with a southward-digging shortwave trough, convection
should increase late tonight beneath the mid-level cold core. A few
lightning flashes could occur offshore, but the near-shore/coastal
thunderstorm potential should remain very low (less than 10
percent).

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