SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0146 PM CST Thu Jan 21 2021 Valid 212000Z - 221200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Although severe thunderstorms are not expected, thunderstorms will continue across parts of southern Arizona through early evening, and from eastern Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley tonight. ...20z Update... Only minor changes have been made to the 10% General Thunder line across southern AZ. General thunder has been removed across southwest AZ as the upper trough continues to eject eastward. Isolated thunderstorms have been noted near the U.S./Mexico border this afternoon, and this activity may continue for several more hours. Otherwise, the remainder of the previous outlook remains unchanged, with additional isolated thunderstorms possible from eastern TX into the lower MS Valley tonight. ..Leitman.. 01/21/2021 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1029 AM CST Thu Jan 21 2021/ ...Southern Arizona... In relation to the eastward-ejecting/de-amplifying shortwave trough over northwest Mexico, a few thunderstorms will remain a possibility mainly across far southern portions of Arizona through the afternoon. ...East Texas into lower Mississippi Valley... Additional moistening/lift in vicinity of a west/east-oriented low-level baroclinic zone may become conducive for some thunderstorms this evening into the overnight. ...Coastal areas of southern Oregon/northern California... In association with a southward-digging shortwave trough, convection should increase late tonight beneath the mid-level cold core. A few lightning flashes could occur offshore, but the near-shore/coastal thunderstorm potential should remain very low (less than 10 percent).
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