SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1053 AM CST Fri Jan 22 2021

Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected across the U.S. on Saturday.

...Synopsis...

An upper shortwave trough, embedded in the larger-scale western U.S.
trough will dig along the CA coast during the day on Saturday,
before ejecting eastward over northwest Mexico and the lower
Colorado Valley. Forecast soundings near the southwest CA coast and
nearby mountains indicated cooling temperatures aloft, resulting in
steepening lapse rates. Instability will remain low, generally less
than 150 J/kg MUCAPE, but sufficient given strong forcing, and
isolated thunderstorms are possible. 

Further east, an upper trough will move offshore from the Atlantic
coast, replaced by a weak upper ridge across the eastern half of the
CONUS. Surface high pressure over the Midwest will slowly shift east
toward the Mid-Atlantic/central Appalachians, mitigating much in the
way of Gulf return flow. As such, dry and stable conditions will
persist for much of the period, and thunderstorms are not expected
east of the Rockies.

..Leitman.. 01/22/2021

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