SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook

Day 2 Outlook Image

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0101 AM CST Sat Jan 23 2021

Valid 241200Z - 251200Z


A few severe storms -- capable of producing hail -- may occur over
portions of North Texas, southern Oklahoma, and far western Arkansas
Sunday evening/overnight.

While weakly anticyclonic/westerly flow will prevail over the
eastern half of the country Sunday and Sunday night, a short-wave
trough -- embedded within broader/long-wave cyclonic flow over the
West -- is forecast to eject northeastward from the Desert
Southwest, reaching the Kansas/Oklahoma area by the end of the
period.  Meanwhile, persistent large-scale cyclonic flow will be
maintained over the west, as elongated short-wave troughing digs
southeastward along the western NOAM coast.

At the surface, a rather ill-defined Pacific cold front crossing the
Desert Southwest will become a bit sharper with time, as surface
frontogenesis increases in a north-south zone encompassing roughly
the central third of Texas.  By the end of the period, a cold front
should extend from a surface low over the eastern Oklahoma/Arkansas
vicinity, south-southwestward across East and Deep South Texas.  

Showers and occasional/embedded lighting will accompany the advance
of the upper trough across the Southwest/Four Corners states, while
more robust/widespread storms evolve mainly during the second half
of the period, in a zone of elevated warm advection over the
southern Plains vicinity.

...Portions of North Texas/southern Oklahoma/western Arkansas...
Current indications continue to suggest that despite low-level
theta-e advection, a capped boundary layer should persist across the
northern and eastern Texas warm sector, as the cold front
sharpens/shifts eastward across the southern Plains.  Still, as QG
ascent increases across north Texas and into Oklahoma with time,
expect elevated storms to erupt -- predominantly after dark --
across this area.  Moderately steep mid-level lapse rates
anticipated, and presence of strong west-southwesterly flow
increasing with height through the cloud-bearing layer, suggest that
a few stronger storms -- possibly exhibiting mid-level updraft
rotation -- will eventually evolve.  As such, hail risk is apparent,
as reflected by the inclusion of a severe weather area.

At this time, risk for surface-based storms -- and thus potential
for damaging winds and even a tornado -- appears quite low, mainly
due to the likelihood that aforementioned capping hinders
surface-based development.  However, should ascent accompanying
passage of the front prove sufficient to force a band of
near-surface-based storms, low-end risks for these additional
hazards would be possible.  This appears to be an unlikely scenario
at this time, and thus is reflected by the lack of wind/tornado
probabilities.  However, should hints that a possibly weaker cap, or
stronger ascent, may evolve across the area, appropriate forecast
adjustments in later outlooks may be considered.

..Goss.. 01/23/2021

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