SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0101 AM CST Sat Jan 23 2021 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS...SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN ARKANSAS... ...SUMMARY... A few severe storms -- capable of producing hail -- may occur over portions of North Texas, southern Oklahoma, and far western Arkansas Sunday evening/overnight. ...Synopsis... While weakly anticyclonic/westerly flow will prevail over the eastern half of the country Sunday and Sunday night, a short-wave trough -- embedded within broader/long-wave cyclonic flow over the West -- is forecast to eject northeastward from the Desert Southwest, reaching the Kansas/Oklahoma area by the end of the period. Meanwhile, persistent large-scale cyclonic flow will be maintained over the west, as elongated short-wave troughing digs southeastward along the western NOAM coast. At the surface, a rather ill-defined Pacific cold front crossing the Desert Southwest will become a bit sharper with time, as surface frontogenesis increases in a north-south zone encompassing roughly the central third of Texas. By the end of the period, a cold front should extend from a surface low over the eastern Oklahoma/Arkansas vicinity, south-southwestward across East and Deep South Texas. Showers and occasional/embedded lighting will accompany the advance of the upper trough across the Southwest/Four Corners states, while more robust/widespread storms evolve mainly during the second half of the period, in a zone of elevated warm advection over the southern Plains vicinity. ...Portions of North Texas/southern Oklahoma/western Arkansas... Current indications continue to suggest that despite low-level theta-e advection, a capped boundary layer should persist across the northern and eastern Texas warm sector, as the cold front sharpens/shifts eastward across the southern Plains. Still, as QG ascent increases across north Texas and into Oklahoma with time, expect elevated storms to erupt -- predominantly after dark -- across this area. Moderately steep mid-level lapse rates anticipated, and presence of strong west-southwesterly flow increasing with height through the cloud-bearing layer, suggest that a few stronger storms -- possibly exhibiting mid-level updraft rotation -- will eventually evolve. As such, hail risk is apparent, as reflected by the inclusion of a severe weather area. At this time, risk for surface-based storms -- and thus potential for damaging winds and even a tornado -- appears quite low, mainly due to the likelihood that aforementioned capping hinders surface-based development. However, should ascent accompanying passage of the front prove sufficient to force a band of near-surface-based storms, low-end risks for these additional hazards would be possible. This appears to be an unlikely scenario at this time, and thus is reflected by the lack of wind/tornado probabilities. However, should hints that a possibly weaker cap, or stronger ascent, may evolve across the area, appropriate forecast adjustments in later outlooks may be considered. ..Goss.. 01/23/2021
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