SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CST Sat Jan 23 2021 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are not expected on Monday across the CONUS. ...Discussion... A persistent western U.S. long-wave trough is progged to remain in place Monday, while anticyclonic westerlies prevail over most of the East. A short-wave trough -- ejecting from the western long wave -- is expected to deamplify with time as it shifts east-northeastward out of the central and southern Plains, and crosses the Midwest/Ohio Valley region into the evening and overnight. Meanwhile, a second short-wave trough -- elongated in a north-south orientation along the western NOAM Coast early -- is forecast to shift gradually inland. As this western feature slowly progresses, showers -- and areas of occasional/embedded lightning -- are expected, from the West Coast states into the Great Basin/Four Corners states. Meanwhile, showers and scattered thunderstorms will spread across the southeastern quarter of the country -- as far north as the Ohio Valley and Mason/Dixon line. Early in the period, a few stronger storms may be ongoing across the Arklatex region, near an Arkansas surface low and trailing cold front. Any lingering/low-end severe risk appears at this time insufficient to warrant any severe-weather probabilities. As the low/front, and associated area of convection -- continues eastward into a more stable environment, potential for robust convection should gradually diminish with time. ..Goss.. 01/23/2021
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