SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook

Day 3 Outlook Image

Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0229 AM CST Sat Jan 23 2021

Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are not expected on Monday across the CONUS.

...Discussion...
A persistent western U.S. long-wave trough is progged to remain in
place Monday, while anticyclonic westerlies prevail over most of the
East.  A short-wave trough -- ejecting from the western long wave --
is expected to deamplify with time as it shifts east-northeastward
out of the central and southern Plains, and crosses the Midwest/Ohio
Valley region into the evening and overnight.  Meanwhile, a second
short-wave trough -- elongated in a north-south orientation along
the western NOAM Coast early -- is forecast to shift gradually
inland.

As this western feature slowly progresses, showers -- and areas of
occasional/embedded lightning -- are expected, from the West Coast
states into the Great Basin/Four Corners states.  Meanwhile, showers
and scattered thunderstorms will spread across the southeastern
quarter of the country -- as far north as the Ohio Valley and
Mason/Dixon line.  

Early in the period, a few stronger storms may be ongoing across the
Arklatex region, near an Arkansas surface low and trailing cold
front.  Any lingering/low-end severe risk appears at this time
insufficient to warrant any severe-weather probabilities.  As the
low/front, and associated area of convection -- continues eastward
into a more stable environment, potential for robust convection
should gradually diminish with time.

..Goss.. 01/23/2021

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