SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1110 AM CST Sat Jan 23 2021 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTH-CENTRAL TX AND SOUTH-CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST OK... ...SUMMARY... A few severe storms capable of producing hail, damaging wind gusts, and perhaps even a brief tornado may occur over portions of North Texas, southern/eastern Oklahoma, and Arkansas Sunday evening through early Monday morning. ...Southern Plains into the Ozark Plateau... Based on recent satellite imagery, a shortwave trough currently extends from the western Great Basin southwestward across central CA. This shortwave is expected to continue gradually southeastward today before then pivoting more eastward late tonight/early tomorrow morning. The shortwave is then forecast to become more progressive as it moves across the Southwest on Sunday and into the southern Plains on Sunday night. A second shortwave trough, accompanied by strong upper flow through its western periphery, is expected to drop southward along the CA coast Sunday evening/overnight. Progression of this second shortwave will help maintain broad upper troughing across the western CONUS into early Monday. Modest moisture return is anticipated throughout the warm sector in place over southern Plains ahead of the lead shortwave. Consensus among the guidance brings low 60s surface dewpoints to the Red River by late Sunday evening. Low-level stability should preclude afternoon/evening storms across much of TX. A few stronger updrafts may develop amid persistent warm-air advection during the afternoon/evening from northeast TX northeastward across eastern OK and across AR. Modest instability should limit both updraft depth and longevity, but strong vertical shear could result in a few updrafts strong enough to produce hail. Greater storm coverage (and attendant severe potential) is expected late Sunday night into early Monday morning as the surface low associated with the shortwave moves from northwest TX into northeast OK. Highest thunderstorm coverage is currently anticipated along and just north of the surface low track. Instability will be modest, but very strong vertical shear could result in a few stronger updrafts capable of hail. Additionally, low-probability potential exists for a few surface-based storms in the vicinity of front from northeast TX into far southeast OK/far southwest AR. Given the strong low/mid-level flow, a threat for damaging wind gusts and perhaps even a brief tornado could accompany any surface-based storms. ..Mosier.. 01/23/2021
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