SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook

Day 2 Outlook Image

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1110 AM CST Sat Jan 23 2021

Valid 241200Z - 251200Z


A few severe storms capable of producing hail, damaging wind gusts,
and perhaps even a brief tornado may occur over portions of North
Texas, southern/eastern Oklahoma, and Arkansas Sunday evening
through early Monday morning.

...Southern Plains into the Ozark Plateau...
Based on recent satellite imagery, a shortwave trough currently
extends from the western Great Basin southwestward across central
CA. This shortwave is expected to continue gradually southeastward
today before then pivoting more eastward late tonight/early tomorrow
morning. The shortwave is then forecast to become more progressive
as it moves across the Southwest on Sunday and into the southern
Plains on Sunday night. A second shortwave trough, accompanied by
strong upper flow through its western periphery, is expected to drop
southward along the CA coast Sunday evening/overnight. Progression
of this second shortwave will help maintain broad upper troughing
across the western CONUS into early Monday.
Modest moisture return is anticipated throughout the warm sector in
place over southern Plains ahead of the lead shortwave. Consensus
among the guidance brings low 60s surface dewpoints to the Red River
by late Sunday evening. Low-level stability should preclude
afternoon/evening storms across much of TX. A few stronger updrafts
may develop amid persistent warm-air advection during the
afternoon/evening from northeast TX northeastward across eastern OK
and across AR. Modest instability should limit both updraft depth
and longevity, but strong vertical shear could result in a few
updrafts strong enough to produce hail.

Greater storm coverage (and attendant severe potential) is expected
late Sunday night into early Monday morning as the surface low
associated with the shortwave moves from northwest TX into northeast
OK. Highest thunderstorm coverage is currently anticipated along and
just north of the surface low track. Instability will be modest, but
very strong vertical shear could result in a few stronger updrafts
capable of hail. Additionally, low-probability potential exists for
a few surface-based storms in the vicinity of front from northeast
TX into far southeast OK/far southwest AR. Given the strong
low/mid-level flow, a threat for damaging wind gusts and perhaps
even a brief tornado could accompany any surface-based storms.

..Mosier.. 01/23/2021

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