SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook

Day 2 Outlook Image

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1258 AM CST Sun Jan 24 2021

Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EAST TEXAS
NORTH-NORTHEAST TO THE MID MISSISSIPPI AND LOWER OHIO VALLEY AREA...

...SUMMARY...
A few strong to perhaps locally severe storms may linger into Monday
from East Texas to the mid Mississippi Valley.

...Synopsis...
As elongated upper troughing along the West Coast digs
south-southeastward, reinforcing the mean long-wave trough over the
West, a weakening feature -- ejecting from the western trough today
-- will shift northeastward across the central Plains and into the
Midwest.  East and southeast of this feature, low-amplitude ridging
will prevail.

At the surface, a low initially expected across Oklahoma will move
east-northeastward into the Ohio Valley, gradually filling in
conjunction with the weakening of the upper system.  A cold front
trailing from this system -- across eastern Oklahoma and East Texas
at the start of the period -- will similarly become more ill-defined
with time, as it moves across the Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys
and sags into the central Gulf Coast States overnight.

...East Texas to the confluence of the Mississippi and Ohio
Rivers...
Showers and embedded thunderstorms are forecast to be ongoing at the
start of the period from eastern portions of the central and
southern Plains, eastward to the lower Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. 
Early in the period, a few robust storms may persist into the
morning and possibly midday hours, along with local/attendant risk
for primarily hail.  With time however, as the surface and upper
systems weaken and shift east-northeastward, a less unstable warm
sector with eastward extent should yield steadily diminishing
convective intensity through the afternoon and into the evening
hours.

..Goss.. 01/24/2021

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