SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook

Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0219 AM CST Sun Jan 24 2021

Valid 261200Z - 271200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe weather is not expected across the U.S. on Tuesday.

...Discussion...
As an upper low/trough over the Gulf of Alaska digs southeastward
toward the West Coast, a trough/low over the Great Basin/Desert
Southwest will be kicked east-northeastward across the central and
southern Rockies into the Central and Southern Plains.  As this
occurs, weak cyclogenesis is expected into the second half of the
period over the western Gulf of Mexico vicinity, along a remnant
baroclinic zone.  

Showers, and a few thunderstorms, are expected across portions of
the central and southern Appalachians/southeastern U.S. early in the
period.  Some increase in shower/thunderstorm activity may occur
during the second half of the period just a bit farther west, into
the lower Mississippi Valley area and central Gulf Coast states, as
low-level warm advection increases in response to the approach of
the next system.  However, with the boundary layer expected to
remain slightly stable, and elevated instability minimal, convection
should remain generally weak/disorganized.

Elsewhere, showers -- and an occasional/embedded lightning flash --
are expected across portions of the Southwest.

..Goss.. 01/24/2021

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