SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0219 AM CST Sun Jan 24 2021 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe weather is not expected across the U.S. on Tuesday. ...Discussion... As an upper low/trough over the Gulf of Alaska digs southeastward toward the West Coast, a trough/low over the Great Basin/Desert Southwest will be kicked east-northeastward across the central and southern Rockies into the Central and Southern Plains. As this occurs, weak cyclogenesis is expected into the second half of the period over the western Gulf of Mexico vicinity, along a remnant baroclinic zone. Showers, and a few thunderstorms, are expected across portions of the central and southern Appalachians/southeastern U.S. early in the period. Some increase in shower/thunderstorm activity may occur during the second half of the period just a bit farther west, into the lower Mississippi Valley area and central Gulf Coast states, as low-level warm advection increases in response to the approach of the next system. However, with the boundary layer expected to remain slightly stable, and elevated instability minimal, convection should remain generally weak/disorganized. Elsewhere, showers -- and an occasional/embedded lightning flash -- are expected across portions of the Southwest. ..Goss.. 01/24/2021
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