SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1014 AM CST Sun Jan 24 2021 Valid 241630Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Large hail and isolated wind damage will be possible this evening and tonight across parts of the southern Plains. ...Southern Plains... Only minor changes have been made to the ongoing outlook. An upper low currently over far southern CA will develop into a progressive shortwave trough and rotate across NM/west TX later tonight. This will result in surface cyclogenesis and strengthening low-level winds over east TX. Enhanced low-level warm advection across parts of the region will lead to a few thunderstorms this afternoon/evening, with more widespread deep convection tonight as the primary forcing and lift overspreads the area. Present indications are that afternoon showers and a few thunderstorms will affect northeast TX/southeast OK into adjacent parts of LA/AR. These storms will be mainly elevated to the north of the surface warm front, where weak CAPE may support hail in the strongest cores. The risk of severe storms appears marginal. After dark, more organized thunderstorms will develop over parts of west TX/southwest OK as the primary forcing arrives, and in the warm sector across north TX/southeast OK as better low-level moisture becomes established. These storms will likely be more intense, with hail and gusty winds possible. Activity will likely persist through the night, spreading northeastward into parts of AR and southern MO. ..Hart.. 01/24/2021
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