SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Outlook Image

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1014 AM CST Sun Jan 24 2021

Valid 241630Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...

...SUMMARY...
Large hail and isolated wind damage will be possible this evening
and tonight across parts of the southern Plains.

...Southern Plains...
Only minor changes have been made to the ongoing outlook.  An upper
low currently over far southern CA will develop into a progressive
shortwave trough and rotate across NM/west TX later tonight.  This
will result in surface cyclogenesis and strengthening low-level
winds over east TX.  Enhanced low-level warm advection across parts
of the region will lead to a few thunderstorms this
afternoon/evening, with more widespread deep convection tonight as
the primary forcing and lift overspreads the area.

Present indications are that afternoon showers and a few
thunderstorms will affect northeast TX/southeast OK into adjacent
parts of LA/AR.  These storms will be mainly elevated to the north
of the surface warm front, where weak CAPE may support hail in the
strongest cores.  The risk of severe storms appears marginal.

After dark, more organized thunderstorms will develop over parts of
west TX/southwest OK as the primary forcing arrives, and in the warm
sector across north TX/southeast OK as better low-level moisture
becomes established.  These storms will likely be more intense, with
hail and gusty winds possible.  Activity will likely persist through
the night, spreading northeastward into parts of AR and southern MO.

..Hart.. 01/24/2021

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