SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1126 AM CST Sun Jan 24 2021

Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEAST
TX INTO THE MID MS AND LOWER OH VALLEYS...

...SUMMARY...
A few strong to perhaps locally severe storms may linger into Monday
from East Texas to the mid Mississippi Valley.

...Synopsis...
Well-defined shortwave trough currently over southern CA/northern
Baja will move eastward across the Southwest and into southern High
Plains today. This wave is forecast to have transitioned to more of
an open, negatively tilted system by early Monday, likely extending
from the central High Plains southeastward into western OK Monday
morning. This wave is then expected to continue quickly
northeastward throughout the day, losing amplitude as it moves
through the mid MS Valley and Upper Great Lakes. A second shortwave
trough, now visible on satellite imagery off the Pacific Northwest
Coast, is expected to continue southeastward along the CA coast
before pivoting eastward over southern CA Monday evening. Overall
upper pattern will favor continued western CONUS troughing
throughout the period, with a long fetch of moderate to strong
southwesterly flow aloft stretching from the Baja Peninsula into the
OH Valley.

Surface low associated with the lead shortwave trough will likely be
centered over northeast OK early Monday morning, with a cold front
extending southward into northeast TX and then back southwestward
into the TX Hill Country. A warm front is also expected to extend
eastward from the low into western TN. This low will likely occlude
throughout the day as the overall system weakens, but secondary
cyclogenesis is forecast at the triple point, with the resulting low
moving across KY Monday night.

...Northeast TX/Southeast OK into Lower OH Valley...
Pre-frontal warm sector will likely be characterized by low to mid
60s dewpoints early Monday from northeast TX into the Mid-South.
Residual EML is expected to be in place, keeping the potential for
surface-based in the immediate vicinity of the front and/or triple
point. Strength of the vertical shear suggests that more
robust/persistent updrafts should be able to acquire rotation, with
the elevated storms capable of hail and the surface-based storms
capable of all severe hazards, but primarily hail. As the day
progresses, convergence along the front will wane, likely
contributing to diminishing storm strength and coverage. The
potential for surface-based inflow is also expected to lessen, but
there is still some chance for damaging wind gusts near the triple
point, where low-level ascent will be greatest, and for hail north
of the warm front into evening.

...MS/AL...
Moisture advection is expected throughout the day, with mid 60s
dewpoints possibly reaching as far north as BHM prior to FROPA. This
increased moisture and resulting increase in buoyancy could
contribute to stronger updrafts and higher storm coverage along and
ahead of front as it moves through MS and AL Monday evening. This
increased moisture could also result in higher potential for
surface-based storm inflow. High resolution guidance varies on this
potential, so confidence in enough coverage to merit severe
probabilities is too low to introduce an area with this outlook.
However, probabilities may be needed in later outlooks if potential
for even severe coverage increases.

..Mosier.. 01/24/2021

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