SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1126 AM CST Sun Jan 24 2021 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEAST TX INTO THE MID MS AND LOWER OH VALLEYS... ...SUMMARY... A few strong to perhaps locally severe storms may linger into Monday from East Texas to the mid Mississippi Valley. ...Synopsis... Well-defined shortwave trough currently over southern CA/northern Baja will move eastward across the Southwest and into southern High Plains today. This wave is forecast to have transitioned to more of an open, negatively tilted system by early Monday, likely extending from the central High Plains southeastward into western OK Monday morning. This wave is then expected to continue quickly northeastward throughout the day, losing amplitude as it moves through the mid MS Valley and Upper Great Lakes. A second shortwave trough, now visible on satellite imagery off the Pacific Northwest Coast, is expected to continue southeastward along the CA coast before pivoting eastward over southern CA Monday evening. Overall upper pattern will favor continued western CONUS troughing throughout the period, with a long fetch of moderate to strong southwesterly flow aloft stretching from the Baja Peninsula into the OH Valley. Surface low associated with the lead shortwave trough will likely be centered over northeast OK early Monday morning, with a cold front extending southward into northeast TX and then back southwestward into the TX Hill Country. A warm front is also expected to extend eastward from the low into western TN. This low will likely occlude throughout the day as the overall system weakens, but secondary cyclogenesis is forecast at the triple point, with the resulting low moving across KY Monday night. ...Northeast TX/Southeast OK into Lower OH Valley... Pre-frontal warm sector will likely be characterized by low to mid 60s dewpoints early Monday from northeast TX into the Mid-South. Residual EML is expected to be in place, keeping the potential for surface-based in the immediate vicinity of the front and/or triple point. Strength of the vertical shear suggests that more robust/persistent updrafts should be able to acquire rotation, with the elevated storms capable of hail and the surface-based storms capable of all severe hazards, but primarily hail. As the day progresses, convergence along the front will wane, likely contributing to diminishing storm strength and coverage. The potential for surface-based inflow is also expected to lessen, but there is still some chance for damaging wind gusts near the triple point, where low-level ascent will be greatest, and for hail north of the warm front into evening. ...MS/AL... Moisture advection is expected throughout the day, with mid 60s dewpoints possibly reaching as far north as BHM prior to FROPA. This increased moisture and resulting increase in buoyancy could contribute to stronger updrafts and higher storm coverage along and ahead of front as it moves through MS and AL Monday evening. This increased moisture could also result in higher potential for surface-based storm inflow. High resolution guidance varies on this potential, so confidence in enough coverage to merit severe probabilities is too low to introduce an area with this outlook. However, probabilities may be needed in later outlooks if potential for even severe coverage increases. ..Mosier.. 01/24/2021
There’s more click here.