SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0145 PM CST Sun Jan 24 2021 Valid 242000Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Large hail and isolated wind damage will be possible this evening and tonight across parts of the southern Plains. ...20Z Update... ...Southern Plains into the Ozark Plateau... Recent surface analysis places a frontal low near SPS, with the cold front extending northeastward to another low in northeast OK and southwestward into the Permian Basin. A shortwave trough remains well west of the region over the Lower CO River, keeping warm-air advection as the primary forcing for ascent. A few storm clusters have developed with in this regime with several deeper updrafts noted over northwest TX and central TX. With the cold front forecast to continue gradually southeastward, any afternoon/evening storms will occur north of the front. Expectation is for overall coverage to increase this evening across OK and AR as the low-level jet increases. As mentioned in the previous outlook, combination of modest elevated buoyancy and strong vertical shear will result in the potential for hail through the evening. As the shortwave through and its attendant forcing move closer tonight, storm coverage will likely increase from west TX across OK and into northern AR. Hail will remain the primary threat with these storms. A relatively small corridor of surface-based storms may develop along and just ahead the front from far south-central OK into north-central TX early Monday morning, continuing east just ahead of the front thereafter. ..Mosier.. 01/24/2021 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1014 AM CST Sun Jan 24 2021/ ...Southern Plains... Only minor changes have been made to the ongoing outlook. An upper low currently over far southern CA will develop into a progressive shortwave trough and rotate across NM/west TX later tonight. This will result in surface cyclogenesis and strengthening low-level winds over east TX. Enhanced low-level warm advection across parts of the region will lead to a few thunderstorms this afternoon/evening, with more widespread deep convection tonight as the primary forcing and lift overspreads the area. Present indications are that afternoon showers and a few thunderstorms will affect northeast TX/southeast OK into adjacent parts of LA/AR. These storms will be mainly elevated to the north of the surface warm front, where weak CAPE may support hail in the strongest cores. The risk of severe storms appears marginal. After dark, more organized thunderstorms will develop over parts of west TX/southwest OK as the primary forcing arrives, and in the warm sector across north TX/southeast OK as better low-level moisture becomes established. These storms will likely be more intense, with hail and gusty winds possible. Activity will likely persist through the night, spreading northeastward into parts of AR and southern MO.
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