SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Outlook Image

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0145 PM CST Sun Jan 24 2021

Valid 242000Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...

...SUMMARY...
Large hail and isolated wind damage will be possible this evening
and tonight across parts of the southern Plains.

...20Z Update...

...Southern Plains into the Ozark Plateau...
Recent surface analysis places a frontal low near SPS, with the cold
front extending northeastward to another low in northeast OK and
southwestward into the Permian Basin. A shortwave trough remains
well west of the region over the Lower CO River, keeping warm-air
advection as the primary forcing for ascent. A few storm clusters
have developed with in this regime with several deeper updrafts
noted over northwest TX and central TX. 

With the cold front forecast to continue gradually southeastward,
any afternoon/evening storms will occur north of the front.
Expectation is for overall coverage to increase this evening across
OK and AR as the low-level jet increases.  As mentioned in the
previous outlook, combination of modest elevated buoyancy and strong
vertical shear will result in the potential for hail through the
evening.  

As the shortwave through and its attendant forcing move closer
tonight, storm coverage will likely increase from west TX across OK
and into northern AR. Hail will remain the primary threat with these
storms. A relatively small corridor of surface-based storms may
develop along and just ahead the front from far south-central OK
into north-central TX early Monday morning, continuing east just
ahead of the front thereafter.

..Mosier.. 01/24/2021

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1014 AM CST Sun Jan 24 2021/

...Southern Plains...
Only minor changes have been made to the ongoing outlook.  An upper
low currently over far southern CA will develop into a progressive
shortwave trough and rotate across NM/west TX later tonight.  This
will result in surface cyclogenesis and strengthening low-level
winds over east TX.  Enhanced low-level warm advection across parts
of the region will lead to a few thunderstorms this
afternoon/evening, with more widespread deep convection tonight as
the primary forcing and lift overspreads the area.

Present indications are that afternoon showers and a few
thunderstorms will affect northeast TX/southeast OK into adjacent
parts of LA/AR.  These storms will be mainly elevated to the north
of the surface warm front, where weak CAPE may support hail in the
strongest cores.  The risk of severe storms appears marginal.

After dark, more organized thunderstorms will develop over parts of
west TX/southwest OK as the primary forcing arrives, and in the warm
sector across north TX/southeast OK as better low-level moisture
becomes established.  These storms will likely be more intense, with
hail and gusty winds possible.  Activity will likely persist through
the night, spreading northeastward into parts of AR and southern MO.

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