SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Outlook Image

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0643 PM CST Sun Jan 24 2021

Valid 250100Z - 251200Z


Large hail and isolated wind damage will be possible this evening
and tonight across parts of the southern Plains.

...Southern Plains/Ozarks...
The latest water vapor imagery shows an upper-level trough from
western Arizona extending southward into northwest Mexico. A plume
of mid-level moisture extends north-northeastward from northern
Mexico into central and north Texas. As the upper-level trough
approaches the southern Rockies this evening, mid-level flow will
become more southwesterly across the southern Plains. In response,
low-level flow and instability will gradually increase across the
southern Plains this evening. A band of strong large-scale ascent
associated with the approaching upper-level trough will result in
continued thunderstorm development across west Texas. This activity
is forecast to move east-northeastward into northwest Texas this
evening. Additional thunderstorms are expected to develop from
northwest Texas into southern Oklahoma during the mid to late
evening near the nose of a 40 to 55 kt low-level jet. This activity
will be located to the north of warm front and will remain elevated.
Steep lapse rates above 700 mb and 50 to 60 kt of effective shear
should be enough for an isolated large hail threat.

Further south, convective development is expected to hold off until
after midnight. Model forecasts suggest that a pocket of moderate
instability will develop from near the Red River southward across
north-central Texas. Thunderstorms that develop within this pocket
of moderate instability will have potential to become surface-based.
There is uncertainty as to how many storms can develop south of the
Red River. But despite this uncertainty, any storm that can develop
may become supercellular due to the strong deep-layer shear. Large
hail and isolated wind damage would be the primary threats
(reference MCD 24). This conditional severe threat is forecast to
spread east-northeastward into northeast Texas and southeast
Oklahoma after midnight as a surface low moves northeastward across
the Red River Valley.

Further to the east, thunderstorm development will be possible into
the Ozarks this evening. This convection will be associated with
warm advection along the northern edge of the stronger low-level
flow. Weak instability and strong effective shear will be enough for
a marginal hail threat. But any potential for strong wind gusts will
remain limited due to the elevated nature of the convection.

..Broyles.. 01/25/2021

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