SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0643 PM CST Sun Jan 24 2021 Valid 250100Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Large hail and isolated wind damage will be possible this evening and tonight across parts of the southern Plains. ...Southern Plains/Ozarks... The latest water vapor imagery shows an upper-level trough from western Arizona extending southward into northwest Mexico. A plume of mid-level moisture extends north-northeastward from northern Mexico into central and north Texas. As the upper-level trough approaches the southern Rockies this evening, mid-level flow will become more southwesterly across the southern Plains. In response, low-level flow and instability will gradually increase across the southern Plains this evening. A band of strong large-scale ascent associated with the approaching upper-level trough will result in continued thunderstorm development across west Texas. This activity is forecast to move east-northeastward into northwest Texas this evening. Additional thunderstorms are expected to develop from northwest Texas into southern Oklahoma during the mid to late evening near the nose of a 40 to 55 kt low-level jet. This activity will be located to the north of warm front and will remain elevated. Steep lapse rates above 700 mb and 50 to 60 kt of effective shear should be enough for an isolated large hail threat. Further south, convective development is expected to hold off until after midnight. Model forecasts suggest that a pocket of moderate instability will develop from near the Red River southward across north-central Texas. Thunderstorms that develop within this pocket of moderate instability will have potential to become surface-based. There is uncertainty as to how many storms can develop south of the Red River. But despite this uncertainty, any storm that can develop may become supercellular due to the strong deep-layer shear. Large hail and isolated wind damage would be the primary threats (reference MCD 24). This conditional severe threat is forecast to spread east-northeastward into northeast Texas and southeast Oklahoma after midnight as a surface low moves northeastward across the Red River Valley. Further to the east, thunderstorm development will be possible into the Ozarks this evening. This convection will be associated with warm advection along the northern edge of the stronger low-level flow. Weak instability and strong effective shear will be enough for a marginal hail threat. But any potential for strong wind gusts will remain limited due to the elevated nature of the convection. ..Broyles.. 01/25/2021
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