SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1155 PM CST Sun Jan 24 2021 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE ARKLATEX...MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...OHIO VALLEY AND TENNESSEE VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... A marginal severe threat is expected today from parts of the Arklatex east-northeastward into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. ...Arklatex/Mid Mississippi Valley/Ohio and Tennessee Valleys... A negatively-tilted shortwave trough will move quickly east-northeastward across the southern High Plains this morning and across the central Plains this afternoon. An associated surface low will move from the southern Plains into the Ozarks. Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing near and to the east of the surface low from eastern Oklahoma across northern Arkansas and southern Missouri at the start of the period. This convection will move east-northeastward during the morning as a warm front advances northward across the mid Mississippi Valley. A hail threat may exist with the stronger elevated thunderstorms this morning. In the wake of this activity, surface-based thunderstorm development will be possible around midday along a front moving through the Ozarks. Thunderstorm coverage could increase during the afternoon as the front moves eastward into the mid Mississippi Valley. By mid afternoon, the moist sector with surface dewpoints in the 60s F is forecast to encompass eastern Arkansas, western Tennessee, Mississippi and west-central Alabama. Surface heating should be sufficient for the development of weak instability ahead of the front with SBCAPE values peaking in the 500 to 800 J/kg range in the afternoon. In addition, a belt of strong mid-level flow will be in place across the mid Mississippi Valley. This will create strong effective shear profiles favorable for a marginal severe threat. A few strong wind gusts may occur as a band of thunderstorms tracks east-northeastward across the northern edge of the moist sector from Arkansas east-northeastward into western and middle Tennessee. Hail will also be possible along this corridor extending northeastward into parts of western and central Kentucky. Although there still remains the possibility for organized storms in parts of the mid Mississippi Valley this afternoon, model forecasts keep instability weak ahead of the front. For that reason, will hold off on an upgrade for this outlook. ..Broyles/Lyons.. 01/25/2021
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