SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1245 AM CST Mon Jan 25 2021 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe weather is not expected across the U.S. on Tuesday. ...Discussion... The persistent western U.S. long-wave trough is forecast to temporarily undergo a transition, as robust short-wave portion of the larger-scale feature ejects eastward across the Four Corners states and eventually reaches the central and southern Plains. However, re-establishment of the large-scale western U.S. trough is expected to occur just offshore, as a northeastern Pacific upper low -- and surrounding/broadening belt of cyclonic flow -- digs south-southeastward toward the Pacific Northwest Coast. At the surface, a baroclinic zone is forecast to extend east-northeast to west-southwest from the Carolinas to the southeastern Texas vicinity. As the western upper system advances, a weak frontal wave is progged to evolve -- initially over the northwestern Gulf -- before shifting into/across the central Gulf coastal region overnight. Showers, and occasional/embedded lightning, will spread across the Four Corners states and vicinity, in tandem with the upper trough advance and associated cold air/steep lapse rates aloft. Meanwhile, showers and occasional/elevated thunderstorms are expected along and east of the central and southern Appalachians, in the vicinity of the aforementioned surface baroclinic zone. Convection should increase over the central Gulf Coast region and into the Southeast with time -- particularly through the second half of the period as broad QG ascent gradually increases ahead of the approaching upper system. However, with the boundary layer expected to remain stable and insufficient instability aloft, severe weather is not expected. ..Goss.. 01/25/2021
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