SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook

Day 2 Outlook Image

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1245 AM CST Mon Jan 25 2021

Valid 261200Z - 271200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe weather is not expected across the U.S. on Tuesday.

...Discussion...
The persistent western U.S. long-wave trough is forecast to
temporarily undergo a transition, as robust short-wave portion of
the larger-scale feature ejects eastward across the Four Corners
states and eventually reaches the central and southern Plains. 
However, re-establishment of the large-scale western U.S. trough is
expected to occur just offshore, as a northeastern Pacific upper low
-- and surrounding/broadening belt of cyclonic flow -- digs
south-southeastward toward the Pacific Northwest Coast.

At the surface, a baroclinic zone is forecast to extend
east-northeast to west-southwest from the Carolinas to the
southeastern Texas vicinity.  As the western upper system advances,
a weak frontal wave is progged to evolve -- initially over the
northwestern Gulf -- before shifting into/across the central Gulf
coastal region overnight.  

Showers, and occasional/embedded lightning, will spread across the
Four Corners states and vicinity, in tandem with the upper trough
advance and associated cold air/steep lapse rates aloft.

Meanwhile, showers and occasional/elevated thunderstorms are
expected along and east of the central and southern Appalachians, in
the vicinity of the aforementioned surface baroclinic zone. 
Convection should increase over the central Gulf Coast region and
into the Southeast with time -- particularly through the second half
of the period as broad QG ascent gradually increases ahead of the
approaching upper system.  However, with the boundary layer expected
to remain stable and insufficient instability aloft, severe weather
is not expected.

..Goss.. 01/25/2021

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