SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook

Day 3 Outlook Image

Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0230 AM CST Mon Jan 25 2021

Valid 271200Z - 281200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
No severe weather is expected across the U.S. on Wednesday.

...Discussion...
A fast-moving short-wave trough -- progged to be exiting the central
and southern Plains region early in the period, will continue
tracking eastward, clearing the East Coast overnight.  Meanwhile,
sharp upper troughing will remain aligned roughly along the West
Coast through the period.  In between, ridging aloft will exist,
with anticyclonic flow expanding to include most of the U.S. by the
end of the period, in the wake of the departing eastern system.

At the surface, high pressure will largely prevail over most of the
country.  A surface front lying across the Southeast and into the
Gulf will sag southward with time, as a weak frontal wave moves off
the southeastern U.S. coast.  Overnight, this front should cross the
Florida Peninsula, reaching far south Florida and the Keys by
28/12Z.

Showers and occasional thunderstorms are expected over portions of
the Southeast, in the vicinity of the aforementioned surface
boundary.  Weak instability suggests disorganized -- and for the
most part elevated -- convection.  Elsewhere, showers will affect
portions of the West Coast in the vicinity of the nearly stationary
upper trough, but any sporadic lightning flashes inland should
remain few and far between, insufficient for inclusion of a 10%
thunder area.

..Goss.. 01/25/2021

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