SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1025 AM CST Mon Jan 25 2021 Valid 251630Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM ARKANSAS EASTWARD ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND DEEP SOUTH.... ...SUMMARY... A marginal severe threat is expected today from parts of the Arklatex east-northeastward into parts of Kentucky and Tennessee, and tonight over parts of the Deep South. ...TN Valley today... A progressive shortwave trough continues to move across the central Plains today, with an associated 100kt+ mid level jet extending from north TX into MO. The primary surface low for this system is over northwest AR, with a warm front extending eastward along the KY/TN border. Strong low-level wind fields are present across the warm sector, with sufficient CAPE to pose a marginal risk of a few fast-moving storms capable of gusty winds. However, model guidance continues to suggest that slight veering in the low-level winds will weaken convergence/forcing and limit coverage of deep convection. ...MS/AL/TN this evening and tonight... After dark, a few thunderstorms are expected to form over parts of MS/Al and middle TN along/ahead of the advancing cold front. Low-level and deep-layer vertical shear profiles in this area will be favorable for storm organization/rotation, and will maintain the marginal probabilities for isolated tornadoes or damaging wind gusts. The primary forecast concern in this region will be storm coverage, and poor thermodynamics in the lowest 3-4 km suggest that updrafts may struggle to intensify. This area will continue to be evaluated in later outlooks. ..Hart.. 01/25/2021
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