SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Outlook Image

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1025 AM CST Mon Jan 25 2021

Valid 251630Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM ARKANSAS
EASTWARD ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND DEEP SOUTH....

...SUMMARY...
A marginal severe threat is expected today from parts of the
Arklatex east-northeastward into parts of Kentucky and Tennessee,
and tonight over parts of the Deep South.

...TN Valley today...
A progressive shortwave trough continues to move across the central
Plains today, with an associated 100kt+ mid level jet extending from
north TX into MO.  The primary surface low for this system is over
northwest AR, with a warm front extending eastward along the KY/TN
border.  Strong low-level wind fields are present across the warm
sector, with sufficient CAPE to pose a marginal risk of a few
fast-moving storms capable of gusty winds.  However, model guidance
continues to suggest that slight veering in the low-level winds will
weaken convergence/forcing and limit coverage of deep convection.

...MS/AL/TN this evening and tonight...
After dark, a few thunderstorms are expected to form over parts of
MS/Al and middle TN along/ahead of the advancing cold front. 
Low-level and deep-layer vertical shear profiles in this area will
be favorable for storm organization/rotation, and will maintain the
marginal probabilities for isolated tornadoes or damaging wind
gusts.  The primary forecast concern in this region will be storm
coverage, and poor thermodynamics in the lowest 3-4 km suggest that
updrafts may struggle to intensify.  This area will continue to be
evaluated in later outlooks.

..Hart.. 01/25/2021

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