Day 4-8 Outlook

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0346 AM CST Mon Jan 25 2021

Valid 281200Z - 021200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Latest runs of the medium-range models exhibit fair agreement
through the medium-range period, though differences in strength and
timing of the advance of smaller-scale features is evident
throughout the period.

In general however, the period will be characterized primarily by
the slow evolution/migration of a trough -- initially just off the
West Coast -- that is progged to traverse the entire U.S. and reside
near the East Coast at the end of Day 8.

As this system progresses, an associated surface cyclone/frontal
system is forecast to emerge into the Plains by Day 6 (Saturday),
and then shift steadily eastward until moving off the East Coast
late Day 7/Day 8.  

Preceding the advance of the surface system however, strong surface
cyclogenesis off the East Coast Day 4 (Thursday) will be followed by
a surge of cold continental air across the eastern U.S. and through
the Gulf of Mexico.  This will likely lead to only a very
incompletely modified return of low-level air ahead of the advancing
surface system, and thus likelihood for very minimal instability. 
As such, risk for severe weather appears low, through the period.

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