Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0346 AM CST Mon Jan 25 2021 Valid 281200Z - 021200Z ...DISCUSSION... Latest runs of the medium-range models exhibit fair agreement through the medium-range period, though differences in strength and timing of the advance of smaller-scale features is evident throughout the period. In general however, the period will be characterized primarily by the slow evolution/migration of a trough -- initially just off the West Coast -- that is progged to traverse the entire U.S. and reside near the East Coast at the end of Day 8. As this system progresses, an associated surface cyclone/frontal system is forecast to emerge into the Plains by Day 6 (Saturday), and then shift steadily eastward until moving off the East Coast late Day 7/Day 8. Preceding the advance of the surface system however, strong surface cyclogenesis off the East Coast Day 4 (Thursday) will be followed by a surge of cold continental air across the eastern U.S. and through the Gulf of Mexico. This will likely lead to only a very incompletely modified return of low-level air ahead of the advancing surface system, and thus likelihood for very minimal instability. As such, risk for severe weather appears low, through the period.
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