SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0654 PM CST Mon Jan 25 2021

Valid 260100Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES AND TENNESSEE VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms associated with a threat for wind damage and
tornadoes will be possible this evening across parts of Mississippi,
Alabama and Tennessee.

...Central Gulf Coast States/Tennessee Valley...
The latest water vapor imagery shows southwest mid-level flow in
place from the southern Plains to the lower to mid Mississippi
Valley. A 90 to 100 kt mid-level jet is located from the southern
Plains into the Ozarks. At the surface, a 1000 mb low is present
near the Bootheel of Missouri with a warm front extending eastward
into the Tennessee Valley. South of the warm front, surface
dewpoints are generally in the 60s F, which is contributing to
MLCAPE in the 800 to 1200 J/kg range according to the RAP. Strong to
severe thunderstorms are developing in middle Tennessee along the
northern edge of the instability corridor. Additional thunderstorms
are developing further south in the stronger instability from
central Mississippi into northwest Alabama.

WSR-88D VWPs near Tupelo and Birmingham have 65 to 75 kt of 0-6 km
shear with looped hodographs. 0-3 km storm relative helicity at both
sites is in the 500 to 600 m2/s2 range with strong directional and
speed shear in the lowest 2 km above ground level. This will support
a tornado threat this evening with supercells that remain discrete.
The corridor of greatest potential for tornadoes will be from
northeast Mississippi into northwest Alabama and southern Tennessee,
where the combination of shear and instability will be most
favorable. Supercells and short bowing line segments will also be
capable of producing wind damage. The threat should persist into the
late evening and early overnight period as several
southwest-to-northeast oriented bands of convection move across the
region.

..Broyles.. 01/26/2021

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