SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1139 PM CST Mon Jan 25 2021 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with strong wind gusts will be possible this afternoon into early evening across parts of the Southeast. ...Southeast... Southwest mid-level flow will be in place today across the Southeast. At the surface, a cold front will advance southeastward across the central Gulf Coast States. The front is forecast to be located from southern Alabama into central Georgia by mid afternoon. Surface dewpoints in the lower to mid 60s F will contribute to weak destabilization by afternoon, with SBCAPE reaching the 500 to 750 J/kg range just ahead of the front. Thunderstorms are expected to develop along and ahead of the front during the mid to late afternoon as instability maximizes. The instability combined with 45 to 55 kt of deep-layer shear should support a marginal wind damage threat from the Florida Panhandle northeastward across southwestern Georgia. Although a few strong wind gusts will be possible, low-level lapse rates are not forecast to be that steep. For this reason, any wind damage threat should remain localized. The potential for marginally severe wind gusts may persist into the early evening as thunderstorms linger in areas that have the strongest instability. ..Broyles/Lyons.. 01/26/2021
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