SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Outlook Image

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1139 PM CST Mon Jan 25 2021

Valid 261200Z - 271200Z


Thunderstorms associated with strong wind gusts will be possible
this afternoon into early evening across parts of the Southeast.

Southwest mid-level flow will be in place today across the
Southeast. At the surface, a cold front will advance southeastward
across the central Gulf Coast States. The front is forecast to be
located from southern Alabama into central Georgia by mid afternoon.
Surface dewpoints in the lower to mid 60s F will contribute to weak
destabilization by afternoon, with SBCAPE reaching the 500 to 750
J/kg range just ahead of the front. Thunderstorms are expected to
develop along and ahead of the front during the mid to late
afternoon as instability maximizes. The instability combined with 45
to 55 kt of deep-layer shear should support a marginal wind damage
threat from the Florida Panhandle northeastward across southwestern
Georgia. Although a few strong wind gusts will be possible,
low-level lapse rates are not forecast to be that steep. For this
reason, any wind damage threat should remain localized. The
potential for marginally severe wind gusts may persist into the
early evening as thunderstorms linger in areas that have the
strongest instability.

..Broyles/Lyons.. 01/26/2021

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