SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook

Day 2 Outlook Image

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1116 AM CST Tue Jan 26 2021

Valid 271200Z - 281200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY ACROSS
PARTS OF SOUTHERN GEORGIA...

...SUMMARY...
A couple of strong thunderstorms may impact parts of southern
Georgia Wednesday, accompanied by at least some risk for severe
weather.

...Synopsis...
One belt of westerlies emanating from the mid-latitude Pacific
appears likely to maintain a prominent influence across the U.S.
through this period.  Across much of the eastern Pacific, models
indicate that embedded mid/upper ridging will remain amplified, with
downstream troughing undergoing further amplification/sharpening
just west of the Pacific coast, while ridging builds across the
Rockies and Great Plains.  As this occurs, broadly confluent flow
eastward through the Atlantic Seaboard (between the blocked regime
across eastern Canada and the prominent subtropical ridge over the
Caribbean), appears likely to transition from westerly to
west-northwesterly.  Embedded within this regime, after turning
eastward across the middle Mississippi Valley during the day
Wednesday, a significant remnant impulse emerging from the Southwest
is forecast to dig into southern Mid Atlantic coastal areas by 12Z
Thursday.

In lower levels, models indicate that an initially stalled surface
frontal zone, across the western Atlantic and Southeast into
northwestern Gulf of Mexico, will provide the focus for significant
cyclogenesis with the approach of the digging short wave impulse. 
While it appears that surface wave development may commence across
the southeastern Alabama/western Florida Panhandle/southwestern
Georgia vicinity by early Wednesday, guidance suggests that this
will remain fairly weak until Wednesday evening, generally well east
of the Carolina coast.  As stronger surface cyclogenesis proceeds, a
cold front will surge through much of Florida and the eastern Gulf
of Mexico by late Wednesday night, accompanied by considerable
lower/mid tropospheric drying.

...Southeast...
Along the northern periphery of the subtropical ridging, lower/mid
tropospheric lapse rates will be generally weak, at least initially.
 But, conditions along the surface front will still be moist, with a
narrow plume of higher precipitable water content (emanating from
southwestern Gulf of Mexico) initially arcing northeastward along
and north of the frontal zone, before being shunted southward.  

Within the warm sector of the developing frontal wave, it appears
that surface dew points in the mid 60s may contribute to weak
boundary-layer CAPE up to 500 + J/kg, across southern Georgia by
Wednesday afternoon.  On the southern fringe of the stronger
mid-level height falls, which may glance areas as far south as the
Georgia/Florida border vicinity, this may become supportive of
scattered vigorous thunderstorm development.  Coinciding with
strengthening of west-southwesterly flow to 40-50 kt around the 850
mb level, enlarging low-level hodographs could become supportive of
supercell structures posing a risk for damaging wind gusts and/or an
isolated tornado or two.

..Kerr.. 01/26/2021

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