SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1116 AM CST Tue Jan 26 2021 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... A couple of strong thunderstorms may impact parts of southern Georgia Wednesday, accompanied by at least some risk for severe weather. ...Synopsis... One belt of westerlies emanating from the mid-latitude Pacific appears likely to maintain a prominent influence across the U.S. through this period. Across much of the eastern Pacific, models indicate that embedded mid/upper ridging will remain amplified, with downstream troughing undergoing further amplification/sharpening just west of the Pacific coast, while ridging builds across the Rockies and Great Plains. As this occurs, broadly confluent flow eastward through the Atlantic Seaboard (between the blocked regime across eastern Canada and the prominent subtropical ridge over the Caribbean), appears likely to transition from westerly to west-northwesterly. Embedded within this regime, after turning eastward across the middle Mississippi Valley during the day Wednesday, a significant remnant impulse emerging from the Southwest is forecast to dig into southern Mid Atlantic coastal areas by 12Z Thursday. In lower levels, models indicate that an initially stalled surface frontal zone, across the western Atlantic and Southeast into northwestern Gulf of Mexico, will provide the focus for significant cyclogenesis with the approach of the digging short wave impulse. While it appears that surface wave development may commence across the southeastern Alabama/western Florida Panhandle/southwestern Georgia vicinity by early Wednesday, guidance suggests that this will remain fairly weak until Wednesday evening, generally well east of the Carolina coast. As stronger surface cyclogenesis proceeds, a cold front will surge through much of Florida and the eastern Gulf of Mexico by late Wednesday night, accompanied by considerable lower/mid tropospheric drying. ...Southeast... Along the northern periphery of the subtropical ridging, lower/mid tropospheric lapse rates will be generally weak, at least initially. But, conditions along the surface front will still be moist, with a narrow plume of higher precipitable water content (emanating from southwestern Gulf of Mexico) initially arcing northeastward along and north of the frontal zone, before being shunted southward. Within the warm sector of the developing frontal wave, it appears that surface dew points in the mid 60s may contribute to weak boundary-layer CAPE up to 500 + J/kg, across southern Georgia by Wednesday afternoon. On the southern fringe of the stronger mid-level height falls, which may glance areas as far south as the Georgia/Florida border vicinity, this may become supportive of scattered vigorous thunderstorm development. Coinciding with strengthening of west-southwesterly flow to 40-50 kt around the 850 mb level, enlarging low-level hodographs could become supportive of supercell structures posing a risk for damaging wind gusts and/or an isolated tornado or two. ..Kerr.. 01/26/2021
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