Day 4-8 Outlook

Day 4-8 Outlook Image

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0354 AM CST Tue Jan 26 2021

Valid 291200Z - 031200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Medium-range models are again exhibiting fair model-to-model
agreement through most of the medium range, in terms of larger-scale
features.  The overall scenario remains that a trough over the
western U.S. at the start of the period will gradually evolve while
shifting slowly but steadily eastward, finally reaching/moving off
the East Coast late Day 7 into Day 8 (early next week).  

This system will be accompanied by a fairly well developed surface
low/frontal system, first emerging into the Plains late Day 4/early
Day 5 (Saturday morning).  While southerly low-level flow within the
warm sector of this cyclone will permit theta-e advection to occur
into the south-central U.S., the prior intrusion of cold continental
air through the Gulf of Mexico will be incompletely modified in
advance of this system.  Thus, minimal instability is anticipated,
and thus, only weak -- and largely elevated -- convection is
expected.  As the system progresses through the rest of the period,
an increasingly stable airmass with eastward extent will likely
preclude any severe risk through the period.

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