Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0354 AM CST Tue Jan 26 2021 Valid 291200Z - 031200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range models are again exhibiting fair model-to-model agreement through most of the medium range, in terms of larger-scale features. The overall scenario remains that a trough over the western U.S. at the start of the period will gradually evolve while shifting slowly but steadily eastward, finally reaching/moving off the East Coast late Day 7 into Day 8 (early next week). This system will be accompanied by a fairly well developed surface low/frontal system, first emerging into the Plains late Day 4/early Day 5 (Saturday morning). While southerly low-level flow within the warm sector of this cyclone will permit theta-e advection to occur into the south-central U.S., the prior intrusion of cold continental air through the Gulf of Mexico will be incompletely modified in advance of this system. Thus, minimal instability is anticipated, and thus, only weak -- and largely elevated -- convection is expected. As the system progresses through the rest of the period, an increasingly stable airmass with eastward extent will likely preclude any severe risk through the period.
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