SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CST Wed Jan 27 2021 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe weather is not expected across the U.S. on Friday. ...Discussion... An upper low/trough over the Northeast will gradually drift eastward/offshore, ahead of the much-more aggressive advance of the western U.S. trough toward the central and southern Plains. This trough, with embedded short-wave energy lying just of the southern CA coast at the start of the period, will advance quickly eastward across the Southwest, acquiring negative tilt with time as it reaches the central/southern High Plains Saturday morning. As this trough advances, surface cyclogenesis will occur, likely in the southern Rockies vicinity. In response, southerly low-level flow will permit above-surface theta-e advection to increase. With remnants of the surface cP airmass lingering, surface-based convection is not expected. However, showers over the Southwest will expand eastward with time, with an increase in elevated convection expected across the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandle region late. Lightning flashes will likely be embedded within this area of convection as it spreads eastward, though overall should remain sporadic through the period. ..Goss.. 01/27/2021
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