SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook

Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0230 AM CST Wed Jan 27 2021

Valid 291200Z - 301200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe weather is not expected across the U.S. on Friday.

...Discussion...
An upper low/trough over the Northeast will gradually drift
eastward/offshore, ahead of the much-more aggressive advance of the
western U.S. trough toward the central and southern Plains.  This
trough, with embedded short-wave energy lying just of the southern
CA coast at the start of the period, will advance quickly eastward
across the Southwest, acquiring negative tilt with time as it
reaches the central/southern High Plains Saturday morning.

As this trough advances, surface cyclogenesis will occur, likely in
the southern Rockies vicinity.  In response, southerly low-level
flow will permit above-surface theta-e advection to increase.  With
remnants of the surface cP airmass lingering, surface-based
convection is not expected.  However, showers over the Southwest
will expand eastward with time, with an increase in elevated
convection expected across the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandle region late.
Lightning flashes will likely be embedded within this area of
convection as it spreads eastward, though overall should remain
sporadic through the period.

..Goss.. 01/27/2021

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