SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Outlook Image

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0132 PM CST Wed Jan 27 2021

Valid 272000Z - 281200Z


An isolated strong storm may continue to pose a risk for severe wind
gusts and/or an additional tornado or two across parts of
northeastern Florida through about 4-5 PM EST.

...20Z Outlook Update...
Primary lingering severe weather potential appears in association
with the small, organized cluster of thunderstorms (with a sustained
significant embedded mesoscale vortex) currently propagating
eastward near the Interstate 10 corridor of northeastern Florida. 
This probably will include a continuing risk for damaging wind
gusts, and perhaps an additional brief tornado or two, as it passes
near/west and southwest of the Jacksonville area through 21-22Z.
(For further details see SPC Mesoscale Discussion 40)

This cell may be near the southern periphery of the stronger
mid-level height falls, with warmer temperatures aloft and weaker
large-scale forcing for ascent limiting convective potential farther
to the west and south.

Otherwise, adjustments to the categorical and probabilistic lines
have been mostly to account for the progression of the synoptic and
subsynoptic features.

..Kerr.. 01/27/2021

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0957 AM CST Wed Jan 27 2021/

Morning surface analysis shows a boundary extending from the FL
panhandle east-northeastward to the GA coast.  Scattered showers and
occasional thunderstorms have been occurring in vicinity of this
boundary, including a few rotating/bowing structures.  Local VAD
profiles suggest that low level winds are relatively veered,
limiting the convergence along the boundary and the near-surface
vertical shear profiles.  Abundant cloud cover will also likely
persist through the day, limiting substantial destabilization.  CAM
solutions suggest that deep convection will track across southern
GA/northern FL through the afternoon. A severe storm or two is
possible in this corridor, with locally damaging wind gusts the main
threat.  An isolated tornado is also possible, but the overall
severe threat appears to remain marginal.

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