SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0132 PM CST Wed Jan 27 2021 Valid 272000Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... An isolated strong storm may continue to pose a risk for severe wind gusts and/or an additional tornado or two across parts of northeastern Florida through about 4-5 PM EST. ...20Z Outlook Update... Primary lingering severe weather potential appears in association with the small, organized cluster of thunderstorms (with a sustained significant embedded mesoscale vortex) currently propagating eastward near the Interstate 10 corridor of northeastern Florida. This probably will include a continuing risk for damaging wind gusts, and perhaps an additional brief tornado or two, as it passes near/west and southwest of the Jacksonville area through 21-22Z. (For further details see SPC Mesoscale Discussion 40) This cell may be near the southern periphery of the stronger mid-level height falls, with warmer temperatures aloft and weaker large-scale forcing for ascent limiting convective potential farther to the west and south. Otherwise, adjustments to the categorical and probabilistic lines have been mostly to account for the progression of the synoptic and subsynoptic features. ..Kerr.. 01/27/2021 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0957 AM CST Wed Jan 27 2021/ ...FL/GA... Morning surface analysis shows a boundary extending from the FL panhandle east-northeastward to the GA coast. Scattered showers and occasional thunderstorms have been occurring in vicinity of this boundary, including a few rotating/bowing structures. Local VAD profiles suggest that low level winds are relatively veered, limiting the convergence along the boundary and the near-surface vertical shear profiles. Abundant cloud cover will also likely persist through the day, limiting substantial destabilization. CAM solutions suggest that deep convection will track across southern GA/northern FL through the afternoon. A severe storm or two is possible in this corridor, with locally damaging wind gusts the main threat. An isolated tornado is also possible, but the overall severe threat appears to remain marginal.
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