Day 4-8 Outlook

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0341 AM CST Wed Jan 27 2021

Valid 301200Z - 041200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Medium-range models continue to exhibit reasonable large-scale
agreement with respect to evolution of the upper pattern, through
roughly Day 7.  Beyond that, differences quickly arise with handling
of a large trough crossing the West late in the period.

Prior to then, the pattern aloft will be characterized by the
progression of a trough -- initially situated over the southern
Rockies/central and southern High Plains.  As this feature
evolves/shifts eastward with time, it will be accompanied by a
well-developed surface low/frontal system, that models suggest will
move from the High Plains early Day 4 (Saturday), to near/off the
East Coast by the end of Day 6 (Tuesday morning).  

Despite the well-developed nature of this surface system, its warm
sector will likely remain notably lacking in instability, due to the
antecedent cP airmass intrusion through the Gulf of Mexico, and 
persistence of ridging aloft across the western Atlantic and into
the Gulf.  As such, though precipitation -- including
weak/low-topped convection -- will accompany passage of the system,
severe weather is not expected.

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