Day 4-8 Outlook

Day 4-8 Outlook Image

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0351 AM CST Thu Jan 28 2021

Valid 311200Z - 051200Z

Agreement/similarity in solutions amongst medium-range models only
appears reasonable through Day 5 (Monday), in the most recent runs,
as models continue to differ rather markedly with the
evolution/advance of an eastern Pacific trough forecast to move
onshore over the West late Day 5/early Day 6.  These continued
differences suggest ongoing lack of predictability within this
evolving pattern, rendering any convective assessment largely
meaningless beyond Day 5.

Early in the period, an eastern U.S. upper trough will advance
slowly toward the Appalachians Day 4 (Sunday), and then across the
mountains early Monday, possibly then evolving into a closed low and
subsequently drifting up the Northeast U.S. coastal vicinity.

At the surface, a low-pressure system will take a similar eastward
path across the eastern U.S., with a cold front -- trailing from an
Ohio Valley low -- forecast to cross the Appalachians Day 4, before
shifting offshore Day 5.  However, a lack of warm-sector instability
is expected, due to an insufficiently warm/moist boundary layer. 
Therefore, severe weather is not expected through Day 5.

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