SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1211 AM CST Fri Jan 29 2021

Valid 301200Z - 311200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected across the U.S. on Saturday.

...Synopsis...
The deep shortwave trough currently off the West Coast is expected
to move through central/southern CA and the Southwest today,
reaching the southern High Plains by early Saturday. This system is
then forecast to continue northeastward throughout the day Saturday,
eventually reaching the mid MS Valley while also developing a closed
mid-level circulation. 

Surface low associated with this system will likely be centered near
the CO/KS/OK border intersection early Saturday, before moving
eastward along the OK/KS border and deepening throughout the day.
This low is then forecast to becoming increasingly occluded as it
moves across the Lower MO Valley into the Mid MS Valley Saturday
evening through Sunday morning. 

Strong moisture advection is anticipated ahead of this system and
its attendant cold front across the southern Plains. However, cold
and dry antecedent conditions and fast eastward progression of the
shortwave will keep 60s dewpoints south over the TX coastal Plain,
away from the steeper mid-level lapse rates farther north. Enough
mid-level moisture is expected to reach the OK/KS and adjacent Ozark
Plateau for isolated lightning flashes within the deeper elevated
storms within the warm conveyor.

..Mosier.. 01/29/2021

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