SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook

Day 3 Outlook Image

Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0107 AM CST Fri Jan 29 2021

Valid 311200Z - 011200Z


Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Sunday.

Guidance is in relatively good agreement that a mature/stacked
cyclone will be centered over the Mid MS/Lower OH Valleys early
Sunday. This system is then expected to move eastward as a shortwave
trough moves through it base, contributing to some re-strengthening
of the cyclone as well as secondary surface cyclogenesis over the
southern Appalachians and Carolina Piedmont. The resulting surface
low is then expected to track northeastward along the wedge front
and off NC coast by early Monday morning.  

Modest low to mid-level moisture is forecast to be in place ahead of
this secondary surface low and its attendant cold front. Some
overlap will exist between this moisture and the moderate mid/upper
level flow surrounding the parent cyclone, primarily across northern
FL and southern GA. Given the strong vertical shear, some potential
for stronger storms exists in this area. However, limited heating
and poor lapse rates will temper buoyancy and the current
expectation is for only isolated thunderstorm coverage with little
severe potential.

..Mosier.. 01/29/2021

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