SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0107 AM CST Fri Jan 29 2021 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Sunday. ...Synopsis... Guidance is in relatively good agreement that a mature/stacked cyclone will be centered over the Mid MS/Lower OH Valleys early Sunday. This system is then expected to move eastward as a shortwave trough moves through it base, contributing to some re-strengthening of the cyclone as well as secondary surface cyclogenesis over the southern Appalachians and Carolina Piedmont. The resulting surface low is then expected to track northeastward along the wedge front and off NC coast by early Monday morning. Modest low to mid-level moisture is forecast to be in place ahead of this secondary surface low and its attendant cold front. Some overlap will exist between this moisture and the moderate mid/upper level flow surrounding the parent cyclone, primarily across northern FL and southern GA. Given the strong vertical shear, some potential for stronger storms exists in this area. However, limited heating and poor lapse rates will temper buoyancy and the current expectation is for only isolated thunderstorm coverage with little severe potential. ..Mosier.. 01/29/2021
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