SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Outlook Image

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0635 AM CST Fri Jan 29 2021

Valid 291300Z - 301200Z


The risk for severe thunderstorm appears negligible across the U.S.
today and tonight.

A pronounced midlevel shortwave trough over southern CA this morning
will progress eastward to the southern High Plains by early
Saturday.  Low-midlevel lapse rates and buoyancy will remain
sufficient for isolated thunderstorms across southern CA today, and
into AZ later this afternoon through this evening.  

As the midlevel trough progresses eastward by tonight, strengthening
lee cyclogenesis is expected in the vicinity of extreme southeast CO
and the western OK Panhandle.  Low-level moisture return across TX
will be limited by a prior cold frontal passage across the Gulf
basin.  However, increasing ascent and midlevel moistening will
support elevated convection (rooted near or above the 700 mb level)
after about 06z across the TX Panhandle and western OK.

..Thompson/Broyles.. 01/29/2021

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