SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0635 AM CST Fri Jan 29 2021 Valid 291300Z - 301200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for severe thunderstorm appears negligible across the U.S. today and tonight. ...Synopsis... A pronounced midlevel shortwave trough over southern CA this morning will progress eastward to the southern High Plains by early Saturday. Low-midlevel lapse rates and buoyancy will remain sufficient for isolated thunderstorms across southern CA today, and into AZ later this afternoon through this evening. As the midlevel trough progresses eastward by tonight, strengthening lee cyclogenesis is expected in the vicinity of extreme southeast CO and the western OK Panhandle. Low-level moisture return across TX will be limited by a prior cold frontal passage across the Gulf basin. However, increasing ascent and midlevel moistening will support elevated convection (rooted near or above the 700 mb level) after about 06z across the TX Panhandle and western OK. ..Thompson/Broyles.. 01/29/2021
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