SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1030 AM CST Fri Jan 29 2021

Valid 291630Z - 301200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms should persist from southern California into
Arizona this afternoon into early evening with scattered activity
over a portion of the Central Plains tonight. No severe weather is
expected.

...Southern California into Arizona...

Upper trough moving into southern CA this morning will continue into
AZ this evening. Ascent and steep mid-level lapse rates accompanying
the primary vorticity maximum are spreading into southern CA, where
isolated thunderstorms should persist this afternoon. The risk for a
few thunderstorms will spread into AZ as lapse rates steepen by late
afternoon into the evening. 

...Southern Plains region...

Steep lapse rates (7.5-8 C/km) in the 700-500 mb layer are in place
across the Southern Plains. Though low-level moisture is limited, a 
plume of mid-upper level subtropical moisture is spreading northeast
ahead of the southwestern U.S. upper trough. A few lightning flashes
remain possible today with shallow mid-level convection developing
in this plume. The primary corridor of thunderstorm development is
expected late tonight from the Texas Panhandle and northwest Texas
through western and central OK. Deeper forcing for ascent within a
strengthening warm advection regime and approach of the shortwave
trough will promote destabilization in the 700-300 mb layer, and
scattered thunderstorms will likely develop, primarily after 08Z.

..Dial.. 01/29/2021

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