SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1030 AM CST Fri Jan 29 2021 Valid 291630Z - 301200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms should persist from southern California into Arizona this afternoon into early evening with scattered activity over a portion of the Central Plains tonight. No severe weather is expected. ...Southern California into Arizona... Upper trough moving into southern CA this morning will continue into AZ this evening. Ascent and steep mid-level lapse rates accompanying the primary vorticity maximum are spreading into southern CA, where isolated thunderstorms should persist this afternoon. The risk for a few thunderstorms will spread into AZ as lapse rates steepen by late afternoon into the evening. ...Southern Plains region... Steep lapse rates (7.5-8 C/km) in the 700-500 mb layer are in place across the Southern Plains. Though low-level moisture is limited, a plume of mid-upper level subtropical moisture is spreading northeast ahead of the southwestern U.S. upper trough. A few lightning flashes remain possible today with shallow mid-level convection developing in this plume. The primary corridor of thunderstorm development is expected late tonight from the Texas Panhandle and northwest Texas through western and central OK. Deeper forcing for ascent within a strengthening warm advection regime and approach of the shortwave trough will promote destabilization in the 700-300 mb layer, and scattered thunderstorms will likely develop, primarily after 08Z. ..Dial.. 01/29/2021
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