Day 4-8 Outlook

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0249 AM CST Fri Jan 29 2021

Valid 011200Z - 061200Z

...DISCUSSION...
A deep upper trough is forecast to exit the East Coast on D4/Monday,
with upper ridging (and associated stable conditions) moving across
the Plains and eastern CONUS in its wake. Consequently,
thunderstorms potential will be very low.

A strong shortwave trough is expected to move over the West Coast
late D5/Tuesday or early D6/Wednesday. Guidance varies on the
evolution of this system, but some severe potential could manifest
if a slower, more southerly track is realized. However, model
differences and forecast range currently limit predictability,
leading to low forecast confidence.

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