SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1145 PM CST Fri Jan 29 2021 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEAST OK/SOUTHEAST KS INTO SOUTHWEST MO/NORTHWEST AR... ...SUMMARY... A few severe thunderstorms may be noted from northeast Oklahoma into southwest Missouri, including parts of southeast Kansas and northwest Arkansas. ...OK/KS/MO/AR Region... Strong short-wave trough is shifting across AZ late this evening. This feature is forecast to progress into the southern High Plains by sunrise. Latest guidance suggests 115kt 500mb speed max will translate across southern OK around 18z with a pronounced exit region forecast over northeast OK/southeast KS by mid day. Intense 12hr mid-level height falls, approaching 240m will be noted with this feature. In response, 70kt LLJ will develop ahead of the pacific front/surface trough which should encourage 50-53F surface dew points to advance across TX into the aforementioned left-exit region of the strong mid-level jet. Very steep mid-level lapse rates will spread north of I-40 into southwest MO as 500mb temperatures cool to near -22F ahead of the front. Latest forecast soundings suggest surface-based buoyancy will evolve by 17z, just northeast of the OKC area. At this time it appears low-topped convection may begin to evolve along the wind shift. Given the extreme surface-6km shear forecast, this activity could struggle to organize. The primary corridor of greatest risk will be oriented along the I44 zone from northeast OK into southwest MO. Expected severe coverage does not currently warrant a SLGT risk, though the strongest supercells could produce hail, wind, or perhaps a brief tornado. ..Darrow/Cook.. 01/30/2021
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