SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Outlook Image

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1145 PM CST Fri Jan 29 2021

Valid 301200Z - 311200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEAST
OK/SOUTHEAST KS INTO SOUTHWEST MO/NORTHWEST AR...

...SUMMARY...
A few severe thunderstorms may be noted from northeast Oklahoma into
southwest Missouri, including parts of southeast Kansas and
northwest Arkansas.

...OK/KS/MO/AR Region...

Strong short-wave trough is shifting across AZ late this evening.
This feature is forecast to progress into the southern High Plains
by sunrise. Latest guidance suggests 115kt 500mb speed max will
translate across southern OK around 18z with a pronounced exit
region forecast over northeast OK/southeast KS by mid day. Intense
12hr mid-level height falls, approaching 240m will be noted with
this feature.

In response, 70kt LLJ will develop ahead of the pacific
front/surface trough which should encourage 50-53F surface dew
points to advance across TX into the aforementioned left-exit region
of the strong mid-level jet. Very steep mid-level lapse rates will
spread north of I-40 into southwest MO as 500mb temperatures cool to
near -22F ahead of the front. Latest forecast soundings suggest
surface-based buoyancy will evolve by 17z, just northeast of the OKC
area. At this time it appears low-topped convection may begin to
evolve along the wind shift. Given the extreme surface-6km shear
forecast, this activity could struggle to organize. The primary
corridor of greatest risk will be oriented along the I44 zone from
northeast OK into southwest MO. Expected severe coverage does not
currently warrant a SLGT risk, though the strongest supercells could
produce hail, wind, or perhaps a brief tornado.

..Darrow/Cook.. 01/30/2021

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