SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1135 PM CST Fri Jan 29 2021 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Sunday. ...Synopsis... Shortwave trough currently moving into the Four Corners region is forecast to continue eastward/northeastward today and overnight, reaching the Mid MS Valley Sunday morning as a mature/stacked cyclone. An additional shortwave trough is expected to progress through the base of the larger parent system on Sunday, contributing to amplification of the eastern CONUS upper troughing as well as secondary surface cyclogenesis over the southern Appalachians and Carolina Piedmont. Secondary surface low resulting from this cyclogenesis will likely move northeastward across central SC and eastern NC, progressing along the stationary front separating the residual cold air damming across the Mid-Atlantic from the warm and moist airmass across the Southeast. A cold front attendant to the surface low will move quickly eastward/southeastward across the Southeast and much of FL. Upper 50s to low 60s surface dewpoints are anticipated ahead of the front across southern GA, eastern SC, and northern FL, but abundant cloud cover and poor lapse rates will temper overall buoyancy. Additionally, surface winds will likely veer ahead of the front, limiting low-level convergence. These limiting factors will be countered somewhat by strong deep-layer shear, and robust storm or two is not out of the question. Even so, the overall marginal severe potential combined with these limiting factors precludes the need to introduce any severe probabilities with this outlook. Severe probabilities may be needed in later outlooks if confidence in greater buoyancy and storm coverage increases. ..Mosier.. 01/30/2021
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