SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook

Day 2 Outlook Image

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1135 PM CST Fri Jan 29 2021

Valid 311200Z - 011200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Sunday.

...Synopsis...
Shortwave trough currently moving into the Four Corners region is
forecast to continue eastward/northeastward today and overnight,
reaching the Mid MS Valley Sunday morning as a mature/stacked
cyclone. An additional shortwave trough is expected to progress
through the base of the larger parent system on Sunday, contributing
to amplification of the eastern CONUS upper troughing as well as
secondary surface cyclogenesis over the southern Appalachians and
Carolina Piedmont. 

Secondary surface low resulting from this cyclogenesis will likely
move northeastward across central SC and eastern NC, progressing
along the stationary front separating the residual cold air damming
across the Mid-Atlantic from the warm and moist airmass across the
Southeast. A cold front attendant to the surface low will move
quickly eastward/southeastward across the Southeast and much of FL.

Upper 50s to low 60s surface dewpoints are anticipated ahead of the
front across southern GA, eastern SC, and northern FL, but abundant
cloud cover and poor lapse rates will temper overall buoyancy.
Additionally, surface winds will likely veer ahead of the front,
limiting low-level convergence. These limiting factors will be
countered somewhat by strong deep-layer shear, and robust storm or
two is not out of the question. Even so, the overall marginal severe
potential combined with these limiting factors precludes the need to
introduce any severe probabilities with this outlook. Severe
probabilities may be needed in later outlooks if confidence in
greater buoyancy and storm coverage increases.

..Mosier.. 01/30/2021

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