SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1056 AM CST Sat Jan 30 2021 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Sunday. ...Synopsis... A mature mid-latitude cyclone over the Midwest Sunday morning will be reinforced by a shortwave trough ejecting eastward from the southern Plains/Ozarks vicinity. This will result in a deepening trough over the Southeast as the system as a whole shifts eastward, becoming oriented from the upper Ohio Valley/lower Great Lakes vicinity to the eastern Gulf of Mexico by Monday morning. At the surface, low pressure over the lower Ohio Valley will shift east toward the central Appalachians, while secondary cyclogenesis occurs over the NC/SC Piedmont. A cold front will extend from southern IN southwestward into central LA Sunday morning. Southerly low level flow ahead of the front will transport mid 50s to low 60s dewpoints across much of the Southeast, and as far north as the NC/SC coastal Plain. However, strong cold air damming will limit northward extent of higher surface dewpoints, with low-to-mid 60s dewpoints remaining confined to southern GA and parts of FL. While strong deep layer flow will overlap with increasing moisture ahead of the front, instability will remain meager due to poor midlevel lapse rates and abundant cloud cover resulting in poor surface heating. Additionally, most guidance is showing veering low level flow, resulting in weak frontal convergence. While a strong storm or two cannot be ruled out from northern FL northward through the SC/NC coastal vicinity, the overall severe threat appears too low to include probabilities at this time. ..Leitman.. 01/30/2021
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