SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook

Day 2 Outlook Image

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1056 AM CST Sat Jan 30 2021

Valid 311200Z - 011200Z


Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Sunday.


A mature mid-latitude cyclone over the Midwest Sunday morning will
be reinforced by a shortwave trough ejecting eastward from the
southern Plains/Ozarks vicinity. This will result in a deepening
trough over the Southeast as the system as a whole shifts eastward,
becoming oriented from the upper Ohio Valley/lower Great Lakes
vicinity to the eastern Gulf of Mexico by Monday morning. At the
surface, low pressure over the lower Ohio Valley will shift east
toward the central Appalachians, while secondary cyclogenesis occurs
over the NC/SC Piedmont. A cold front will extend from southern IN
southwestward into central LA Sunday morning. Southerly low level
flow ahead of the front will transport mid 50s to low 60s dewpoints
across much of the Southeast, and as far north as the NC/SC coastal
Plain. However, strong cold air damming will limit northward extent
of higher surface dewpoints, with low-to-mid 60s dewpoints remaining
confined to southern GA and parts of FL. 

While strong deep layer flow will overlap with increasing moisture
ahead of the front, instability will remain meager due to poor
midlevel lapse rates and abundant cloud cover resulting in poor
surface heating. Additionally, most guidance is showing veering low
level flow, resulting in weak frontal convergence. While a strong
storm or two cannot be ruled out from northern FL northward through
the SC/NC coastal vicinity, the overall severe threat appears too
low to include probabilities at this time.

..Leitman.. 01/30/2021

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