Day 4-8 Outlook

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0309 AM CST Sat Jan 30 2021

Valid 021200Z - 071200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Upper ridging is forecast to traverse the central CONUS on
D4/Tuesday, leading to continued stable conditions east of the
Rockies. Thereafter, a deep upper trough is expected to move across
the western CONUS and into the Plains. Overall evolution of this
upper trough remains uncertain although it does appear increasingly
likely that a series of shortwave troughs will move through the
larger upper trough, contributing to severe potential as well as
ushering in a very cold air mass. 

Current guidance suggests any severe potential would be linked to
the lead shortwave trough, which will likely eject out across the
southern Plains late D6/Thursday and into the MS Valley on
D7/Friday. Currently, modest moisture return, minimal buoyancy, and
deep southwesterly (i.e. boundary-parallel) flow all suggest limited
severe potential. Even so, very strong forcing for ascent and
vertical shear will accompany this shortwave, and some severe storms
may materialize if mesoscale details (which are difficult to
ascertain at this forecast range) align.

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