Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0309 AM CST Sat Jan 30 2021 Valid 021200Z - 071200Z ...DISCUSSION... Upper ridging is forecast to traverse the central CONUS on D4/Tuesday, leading to continued stable conditions east of the Rockies. Thereafter, a deep upper trough is expected to move across the western CONUS and into the Plains. Overall evolution of this upper trough remains uncertain although it does appear increasingly likely that a series of shortwave troughs will move through the larger upper trough, contributing to severe potential as well as ushering in a very cold air mass. Current guidance suggests any severe potential would be linked to the lead shortwave trough, which will likely eject out across the southern Plains late D6/Thursday and into the MS Valley on D7/Friday. Currently, modest moisture return, minimal buoyancy, and deep southwesterly (i.e. boundary-parallel) flow all suggest limited severe potential. Even so, very strong forcing for ascent and vertical shear will accompany this shortwave, and some severe storms may materialize if mesoscale details (which are difficult to ascertain at this forecast range) align.
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