SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0633 PM CST Sat Jan 30 2021 Valid 310100Z - 311200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected the remainder of tonight. ...01z Update... Strong upper trough has progressed into the Mid MS Valley early this evening, currently extending from northwest MO-northern AR. As a result, focused exit region of the mid-level jet has shifted into the lower OH Valley as evident by the extensive precip shield along the nose of the LLJ. Upstream, the loss of diurnal heating will prove detrimental to surface-based convection immediately ahead of the upper trough as boundary-layer cooling cripples an otherwise weakly buoyant air mass. Remnants of earlier severe that developed over northeast OK has progressed into the MO Ozark Plateau where substantial weakening has been observed. With downstream surface temperatures in the 40s to lower 50s, there appears to be limited buoyancy for robust updrafts. For these reasons, severe probabilities are too low to warrant a continuation of the MRGL Risk tonight. ..Darrow.. 01/31/2021
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