SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Outlook Image

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0633 PM CST Sat Jan 30 2021

Valid 310100Z - 311200Z


Severe thunderstorms are not expected the remainder of tonight.

...01z Update...

Strong upper trough has progressed into the Mid MS Valley early this
evening, currently extending from northwest MO-northern AR. As a
result, focused exit region of the mid-level jet has shifted into
the lower OH Valley as evident by the extensive precip shield along
the nose of the LLJ.

Upstream, the loss of diurnal heating will prove detrimental to
surface-based convection immediately ahead of the upper trough as
boundary-layer cooling cripples an otherwise weakly buoyant air
mass. Remnants of earlier severe that developed over northeast OK
has progressed into the MO Ozark Plateau where substantial weakening
has been observed. With downstream surface temperatures in the 40s
to lower 50s, there appears to be limited buoyancy for robust
updrafts. For these reasons, severe probabilities are too low to
warrant a continuation of the MRGL Risk tonight.

..Darrow.. 01/31/2021

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