SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Outlook Image

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1137 PM CST Sat Jan 30 2021

Valid 311200Z - 011200Z


Severe thunderstorms are not expected today.

...Southeastern US...
Strong upper trough, currently located over the Mid MS Valley is
forecast to shift east into the OH/TN Valley over the next 24hr.
500mb flow will likely increase during the latter half of the period
across the lower MS Valley, and this should encourage height falls
within the base of the trough across the central/eastern Gulf
States. As this occurs, the old surface low over the OH Valley
should become orphaned and a new surface low is forecast to
strengthen off the Carolina Coast after sunset. This large-scale
evolution is not particularly favorable for substantial moisture
returning inland as deep-layer flow is forecast to veer ahead of the
front. Surface dew points across the northern/eastern Gulf Basin are
seasonally low and mid 60s dew points will struggle to approach the
coast. Additionally, forecast lapse rates will remain weak and
resultant instability will remain poor at lower latitudes. Despite
strengthening flow/shear across southern GA/northern FL, the
probability for severe appears too low to warrant a MRGL Risk across
this region.

..Darrow.. 01/31/2021

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