SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1137 PM CST Sat Jan 30 2021 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today. ...Southeastern US... Strong upper trough, currently located over the Mid MS Valley is forecast to shift east into the OH/TN Valley over the next 24hr. 500mb flow will likely increase during the latter half of the period across the lower MS Valley, and this should encourage height falls within the base of the trough across the central/eastern Gulf States. As this occurs, the old surface low over the OH Valley should become orphaned and a new surface low is forecast to strengthen off the Carolina Coast after sunset. This large-scale evolution is not particularly favorable for substantial moisture returning inland as deep-layer flow is forecast to veer ahead of the front. Surface dew points across the northern/eastern Gulf Basin are seasonally low and mid 60s dew points will struggle to approach the coast. Additionally, forecast lapse rates will remain weak and resultant instability will remain poor at lower latitudes. Despite strengthening flow/shear across southern GA/northern FL, the probability for severe appears too low to warrant a MRGL Risk across this region. ..Darrow.. 01/31/2021
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